A new poll commissioned by a super PAC that supports the Sam Liccardo congressional campaign released this week shows the former San Jose mayor with a nearly insurmountable 14-point lead over Assemblymember Evan Low.  The survey was completed a month before early voting by mail begins on Oct. 8.

The poll was commissioned by Neighbors for Results, an independent political action committee that supports Liccardo, which is funded almost entirely by former New York mayor and former presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg.

The survey of likely voters in California’s 16th Congressional District by RG Strategies on their choice in the November general election was conducted from Sept. 4-7 2024, with a sample of 600 likely voters. Voters were contacted using a hybrid approach of text messages, telephone calls, and emails, administered in English. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%.

On the first survey question, Liccardo led Low 42% to 28%, according to a Sept. 16 memo from the pollsters. As voters learned more about both candidates’ biographies, accomplishments, and contrasts, Liccardo’s vote share increased and his lead over Low jumped to 52% to 24%. Twenty-one percent were completely undecided.

A poll conducted by a different polling firm in June showed Liccardo leading Low by more than 11%, with 39% of the vote, followed by Low with 28%. Poll results from a July survey released by Low in August called the race a “dead heat” with Liccardo at 30%, Low at 29% and undecided respondents at 41%, with a 4.38% margin of error.

In February, Bloomberg made an initial $500,000 donation to Neighbors for Results. On Aug. 30, the billionaire philanthropist contributed $1.5 million, bringing the total to $2 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Neighbors for Results reported expenditures of about $563,000 on Liccardo’s congressional campaign with $1.5 million in campaign cash on hand as of Aug. 31. At the last reporting date, Neighbors for Results listed two other donors: former NetApp CEO Daniel Warmenhoven, who has given $50,000, and Cypress Semiconductor founder John Thurman Rodgers, who has contributed $15,000.

According to the Sept. 16 memo from RG Strategies on the September poll, “Liccardo shows deep support across ideological and demographic groups,” outperforming Low among Democrats, Republicans, and No Party Preference voters. In the polling, Liccardo also tops Low with liberals, moderates, conservatives, and across all ages of voters, including young people under the age of 27.

The former mayor’s favorability rating tops Low 40% to 33% in the polls, according to the memo, especially among voters in the City of San Jose, which makes up over 30% of the 16th District.

The Liccardo campaign leads in overall fundraising and cash on hand, according to the most recent FEC reports, and touts endorsements from the Sierra Club, the Latino Victory Fund, Everytown for Gun Safety, J Street and the Northern California Carpenters Regional Council.

In the RG Strategies poll, when prospective voters were asked whom they would vote for Congress based only on name, ballot designation, and party affiliation, 42% of voters say they will vote for Liccardo, with 21% of voters saying they are certain they will vote for him. For Low, 27% say they will vote for him, with 15% of voters saying they are certain they will vote for him.

Matt Rodriguez, a Neighbors for Results spokesperson, “Sam Liccardo got fantastic results as one of the most innovative big city mayors in the United States with his innovative solutions on homelessness and crime; it’s only natural that somebody like Mike Bloomberg would appreciate a record like that.”

“We are especially glad that Sam is in such a commanding position in this race, with a 14-point lead over Evan now, a lead that only widens as people find out more about Sam’s record and Evan’s,” said Rodriguez.