California has more eligible students for admission to the state's public universities than those campuses have space for.

A new report released this month by The Campaign for College Opportunity highlights that more eligible students are applying to the University of California and California State University campuses than those colleges can admit. The lack of capacity means that fewer qualified Latino and Black students are applying to these universities.

It also means that the state is still projecting a shortfall of workers with bachelor's degrees and ranks 34th nationally in awarding four-year degrees.

“It has gotten exceedingly difficult to get into the University of California and a growing number of Cal State campuses,” said Michele Siqueiros, president of the California-based campaign organization, which is focused on improving higher education opportunities for students. “Harder than in previous generations. It's a real issue of fairness and equity at a time when we know a college degree is valuable and more high schools are preparing for college.”

The campaign hosted a webinar Dec. 15 featuring Siqueiros, CSU Chancellor Joseph Castro, Assemblyman Kevin McCarty (D-Sacramento), and UC regent Cecilia Estolano to discuss the report.

More California high schools are eligible to attend a California public university. About half of the state's high school graduates are completing A-G courses required for admission to the UC and CSU and more California students are applying for admission to UC and CSU, according to the panelists.

The imbalance has long existed in California's public university systems, but the study emphasizes the need for change.

Eligible high school students are especially impacted and face challenges when they attempt to gain access to their preferred UC or CSU campus or a specific program. And freshman admission is highly competitive to the UC system. The average high school GPA of students admitted to the system has increased and is close to or above a 4.0 at nearly all nine undergraduate campuses, according to the report. For example, at UC Merced, students admitted to the campus have the equivalent of a 3.7 GPA.

Merced is the only UC campus that accepts students from the referral pool, which describes those high-achieving students who are not admitted to their preferred campus.  These are students who rank in the top 9 percent of their graduating high school class and meet UC eligibility. They qualify for the statewide guarantee for UC admission but not necessarily to their top choices. According to the report, nearly 12,000 UC applicants were in the referral pool in 2019. Only 553 of those opted for admission to the Merced campus and only 57 chose to enroll.

“Guaranteed admission to all eligible students is a false guarantee when they're being directed to a campus where we know 90 percent of them won't enroll,” Siqueiros said. “We think it's especially concerning in regard to CSU because students who apply to CSU are place-bound, maybe older, or have families. If they're not admitted into an institution in their region, they're unlikely to go to Humboldt in the north state or a campus far away from home.”

In the CSU system, 16 of the 23 campuses have more freshman applicants meeting statewide eligibility requirements than the physical capacity and resources to admit. And nearly all CSU campuses, except Dominguez Hills, have specific programs or majors that are at capacity. For example, more than 60 percent of business departments are at capacity across the system, especially those with accounting specializations.

Like the UC system, CSU redirects eligible freshmen who may not be admitted to the campus of their choice to a different university. But in 2020, of the more than 7,000 freshmen who were redirected only 117 enrolled.

These capacity problems mean California ranks near the bottom, at 41st, for public undergraduate enrollment in the four-year sector. In other states, four-year public universities account for the majority of undergraduate enrollment. But in California, "the vast majority of low-income, Latinx, and Black graduates never attend a four-year university," according to the report. The state sends qualified bachelor's degree-seekers to a community college instead.

Because of challenges and barriers to transfer, the state isn't producing enough bachelor's degree holders. For example, more than three-quarters of community college students plan to transfer, but only 19 percent do so within four years.

The report also highlights that Black and Latino students are significantly underrepresented in the UC system when their percentage of enrollment is compared to the eligible graduating students in the state. (Only Black students are underrepresented in the CSU.)

The report also found that among eligible Latino high school graduates who had completed A-G courses, less than half applied for admission to the UC.

“UC is celebrating record applications and admissions for Latinx students this year," Siquerios said. "But much of that is driven by reality and growth in that demographic."

Siquerios said it's concerning what's happening to Black and Latino students, that they don't apply even when they're qualified.

Black and Latino high school graduates are looking for campuses that give them a sense of belonging, are welcoming and have plenty of faculty and staff who look like them, Siquerios said.

“For Black students, we've seen the real impact that the ban on affirmative action has had on universities' ability to intentionally recruit and admit,” she said.

Data on high school graduates and their admission shows that the representation of Latinx students at CSU matches their growing share of high school graduates, but representation continues to lag at UC. Black students are somewhat underrepresented in both university systems.

At CSU the share of Black freshmen has been dropping steadily from 7.2 percent in 2007 to 4.5 percent in 2020. "California's Black students are disproportionately likely to start their college careers at a community college," the report concludes. While white students are "not much more likely than Black students to end up in a California public university," nearly 1 in 5 white high school graduates go out of state for college, the report said.

The share of the state budget invested in higher education declined from 18 percent in the mid-1970s to 11 percent in 2018-19, where it remains as of the 2021-22 budget, according to the report.

“We're fortunate we have a governor in Gavin Newsom that understands and made historical investment in the last two years,” Siqueiros said. “But we haven't done that in the course of the last 20 years, so those historic investments aren't going to make up for the many years we haven't made adequate investment.”